Is It Time to Panic or Celebrate? Suffer Alongside Rolling Stone as Election Results Roll In
We’ve had a good run parsing the early and overnight returns, but you can now find our latest coverage of the race for the presidency here:
Here’s Where Things Stand in the 6 States That Will Pick the President
Scroll below to revisit all the twists and turns of the first 18 hours of Election Day(s) 2020. We divided the news into what bodes well for Biden (This Seems Good), what bodes well for Trump (Trumpocalypse Rising), and what didn’t seem to favor either candidate, in particular (Too Soon To Tell).
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This Seems Good
Image Credit: Carolyn Kaster/AP Images 2:16 p.m. EST: The AP has called Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) for Biden.
11:33 a.m. EST: Good news from Wisconsin. The state’s elections commission administrator told NBC News that all of the ballots have been counted and Joe Biden has won the state. He now just needs to hold onto Nevada and win either Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania to secure the presidency. This is far from over, but you have our permission to take a minute to savor that cup of coffee.
BREAKING Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator says on @NBCNews: “All of the ballots have been counted.” Joe Biden has won Wisconsin by 20,697 votes.
— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) November 4, 2020
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9:05 a.m. EST: Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, as the state continues to tabulate absentee votes into Wednesday morning. Though the lead is small, it’s expected to grow; the mail-in votes yet outstanding are expected to favor Biden heavily. If the former VP can hold onto his current leads in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he’ll be the next president.
5:00 a.m. EST: Biden’s hopes for closing the gap with Trump in Wisconsin hinged on mail-in voting from Milwaukee, and the state’s big blue city delivered. The results from about 170,000 newly tallied early and mail-in ballots, released all at once, suddenly put Biden slightly ahead — a massive reversal after he’d trailed by around 100,000 moments before. It’s the most excited we’ve been all night. It doesn’t, however, mean Biden has Wisconsin locked up. His margin is razor-thin, and more votes are coming in. But it’s better to be ahead than behind, and there’s no obvious source of new votes that are expected to help Trump reclaim the lead.
2:51 a.m. EST: In his first swing-state takedown, the AP has called Arizona (11 electoral votes) for Biden. There’s still plenty to be nervous about, but this keeps Biden in the fight — and flips a state Trump won in 2016.
1:45 a.m. EST: Trump got out to a big lead in Georgia, but the gap is tightening as more votes are counted from Fulton County, which includes Atlanta. We’re going to have to wait until Wednesday morning to find out more, because the two most populous counties in the state, Fulton and Gwinnett, have already said they’re not counting any more ballots tonight. If Biden were able to come from behind and win Georgia and its 16 electoral votes, he could potentially lose both Pennsylvania and Michigan and still win the election. Peachy.
Georgia tightens: With 91 percent in, Trump’s lead drops to 50.6-48.1 percent. 72% of precincts reporting in Fulton County
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 4, 2020
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1:22 a.m. EST: The AP has reported that Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, bringing home a prize of one (1) electoral vote. It’s not much, but there’s a very real chance it could determine the election. If Biden hangs on to win in Arizona (looking good), and then wins Wisconsin and Michigan but loses Pennsylvania (very possible), he could wind up at 270 electoral votes on the nose. Behold:
This is a winning map for Biden, just fyi. That NE 2 vote is major. pic.twitter.com/gJzqoesJDz
— Tim Dickinson (@7im) November 4, 2020
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12:00 a.m. EST: Though things are looking bleak in Florida, Biden has held a sizable lead in Arizona all night, so much so that Fox News has already called it for him (we’re still waiting on the AP). As of midnight on the East Coast, he’s up by over 8 points with 75 percent of the vote counted. A win Arizona would give Biden a little wriggle room in the Midwest, which could be a game changer as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all look like they’re going to be close, and crucial. If Biden can hold on in Arizona he’ll be able to lose one of them and still squeak across the 270-vote threshold.
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Trumpocalypse Rising
Image Credit: Evan Vucci/AP Images 12:35 a.m. EST: The AP has called Florida for Trump. He’s up 300,000-plus votes — more than 3 percent. Winning Florida would have been an early knockout for Biden. Instead, it’s proof that a lot of the polls (including several which had him up 3 percent or more) were way off. The rejoinder to a lot of anxieties about tonight was “but the polls can’t be that wrong.” It turns out they can.
12:45 a.m. EST: Ohio has gone for Trump as well. He trounced Biden, winning by 8 percentage points — and nearly 500,000 votes. Ohio was always going to be tough for Biden, and the state is redder than neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin. But losing Ohio by 8 points there is a worrisome sign for those 2 states and another Biden is counting on: Pennsylvania11:40 p.m. EST: Though pre-Election Day polling suggested Biden could have a shot to turn Texas blue, as we close in on midnight on the East Coast, it’s not looking great. With nearly 80 percent of the vote counted in Texas, Trump is up 5 points.
8:49 p.m. EST: More from Florida:
Trump is up 250,000+ votes from his 2016 totals in the big three South Florida counties: Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Still more to report. Biden is way down in those counties from where Clinton was.
— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) November 4, 2020
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8:20 p.m. EST: In Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade, Trump is doing much better against Biden than he did against Hillary Clinton four years ago. Biden’s still winning there (and votes are still coming in), but he needs to do a lot better than win there to make up for deficits elsewhere. Biden doesn’t need Florida to win the race overall, but winning it would be a huge relief. There are lots of votes coming on and lots could change, but so far there’s little to suggest that’s happening.
The bigger question is whether Biden’s struggles in Miami-Dade will mean lower standing with Latino voters elsewhere. Miami’s Cuban American population is generally more GOP-friendly than other Latinos, and Biden better hope that’s the case here.
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Too Soon To Tell
Image Credit: Steve Helber/AP Images 3:05 a.m. EST: Biden has won Maine (4 electoral votes), according to the AP.
1:05 a.m. EST: The AP has now called Texas (38 electoral votes) for Trump. Though the Biden campaign invested resources in the state, it wasn’t particularly close on Election Day. Trump led by nearly 6 points with over 80 percent of the votes counted when the call was made. Texas may someday be a Democratic state, but it’s clearly not yet.
12:21 a.m. EST: The AP put Montana (3 electoral votes) and Iowa (6) in the Trump column. Some believed Iowa could be play for Biden, but he probably could have landed only in a landslide scenario. This is no landslide.
12:07 a.m. EST: Biden has won Hawaii (4 electoral votes), per the AP.
11:00 p.m. EST: The West Coast has come in for Biden, as expected. The AP has called California (55 electoral votes), Oregon (7), and Washington (12) for the former vice president. Trump snagged Idaho (4) and Utah (6).
10:54 p.m. EST: Biden has won New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), per the AP.
10:00 p.m. EST: The AP has called Kansas (6 electoral votes) for Trump.
9:45 p.m. EST: Minnesota (10 electoral votes) to Biden, per the AP. It’s the upper Midwest states to Minnesota’s east that are going to determine the election.
9:36 p.m. EST: The AP gives Biden Colorado (9 electoral votes) and the heavily democratic District of Columbia (3). It wasn’t so long ago that Colorado was a swing state. No longer.
9:30 p.m. EST: In Ohio, where a Biden win would almost certainly spare us from another four years of giving a shit what Trump just tweeted, there are several counties in which Biden is beating Trump by a bigger margin than Hillary Clinton did four years ago, per CNN. Look, folks, it’s early. And if this is your cue to start partying, you just wanted an excuse to start partying. But hope in Ohio has pulled us out of our “This Is 2016 All Over Again” tailspin … for now.
9:00 p.m. EST: A new batch of states have been called. No surprises. Biden has won New Mexico (5 electoral votes) and New York (29), according to the AP. Meanwhile, Trump has taken North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Wyoming (3), and Louisiana (8).
8:52 p.m. EST: Indiana (11 electoral votes) goes to Trump, per the AP. Former Governor Mike Pence is celebrating with a warm glass of milk.
8:00 p.m. EST: Biden wins Connecticut (7 electoral votes), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Illinois (20), Rhode Island (4), New Jersey (14), and Massachusetts (11). Trump has won Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), and Tennessee (11). Sorry folks. There are no surprises here. We’re off to frantically refresh a few results tabs.
7:36 p.m. EST: Joe Biden wins Virginia (15 electoral votes), per the AP. We’d love to tell you this was big news, and in previous elections, it might have been. But Virginia’s a blue state now, and Biden was banking on those votes already.
7:15 p.m. EST: The AP calls West Virginia (5 electoral votes) for Trump. Even though the coal industry Trump promised to revitalize has collapsed, this was expected.
7:00 p.m. EST: The AP calls Kentucky (8 electoral votes) for Trump and Vermont (3) for Biden. As noted above, these are both expected. Leave the champagne on ice, but don’t buy your New Zealand flights yet either.